有色商品日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still low, and the instability of the US stock market has increased market concerns about liquidity. The overall global visible inventory is in a state of accumulation and is approaching recent high levels. Without sudden events, copper volatility may remain at a low level, and copper prices will show a high - level oscillating market [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The macro - sentiment continued to warm up, but the high price had an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The destocking of aluminum ingots was continuously blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to decline. Aluminum prices continued to be strong but had difficulty rising further. Aluminum alloy had more upward momentum, and the spread between refined and scrap aluminum was expected to narrow [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory pressure of primary nickel became prominent, and the LME inventory remained at 250,000 tons and was difficult to digest, putting great pressure on the market. Nickel prices continued to operate weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The Fed's internal division over whether to cut interest rates in December has increased, and the probability of a rate cut remains low. The downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and the overall demand is slowly recovering. However, the high inventory may restrict the upward movement of copper prices in the future [1]. - Aluminum: The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The end of the US government shutdown and the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions have warmed up the macro - sentiment. However, high prices have suppressed demand, and the destocking of aluminum ingots has been blocked. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [1][2]. - Nickel: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is increasing, and the LME inventory is difficult to digest, putting pressure on the market. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the inventory of stainless steel has increased. Nickel prices are still weak, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On November 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan compared to November 14. The total inventory (weekly) decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons [3]. - Lead: On November 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons [3]. - Aluminum: On November 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan compared to November 14. The electrolytic aluminum inventory (weekly) increased by 25,000 tons to 646,000 tons [4]. - Nickel: On November 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 925 yuan compared to November 14. The nickel inventory (weekly) increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [4]. - Zinc: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to November 14. The social inventory (weekly) increased by 1,300 tons to 162,000 tons [6]. - Tin: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 289,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5% compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 266 tons to 6,258 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][14][23][29][35][42].