航运日报：CMA12月份涨价函发布，关注马士基12月第一周开价情况-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined, and the valuation gradually becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price - support measures in December. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next long - term contract negotiation [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. The delivery and settlement time of the February contract is determined. If the price - support period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at parity with the December contract [5]. - The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of November 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 72,346.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 57,165.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1726.00, 1187.70, 1403.90, 1521.10, 1118.00, and 1792.30 respectively [6]. II. Spot Price - On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price was 1417 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1823 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2600 US dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1238.42 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the remaining three - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, with capacities of 278,700, 269,000, and 279,600 TEU in weeks 47, 48, and 49 respectively. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU, with capacities of 333,000, 270,000, 314,200, and 334,700 TEU in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 respectively [3]. - In November, there were a total of 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN (4 by MSC/PA Alliance, 1 by Gemini Alliance, 5 by OA Alliance, and 1 TBN of OA Alliance is expected to turn into a blank sailing). In December, there were 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing (3 TBNs by OA Alliance, 1 TBN and 1 blank sailing by MSC/PA Alliance) [3]. - As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 1.072 million TEU in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU category and 12 ships with a capacity of 253,800 TEU in the over 17,000 TEU category had been delivered [6]. IV. Supply Chain No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only figure references are given. V. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only figure references are given.