新能源及有色金属日报：铝社会库存表现弱于预期-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic overall supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and power costs have an impact, and consumption is expected to enter a peak season. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices may be limited, and if inventory reduction is smooth, the upside potential of aluminum prices may be opened [6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory is increasing. The current fundamentals lack positive factors, but there may be disturbances from overseas mines [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,480 yuan/ton, a change of - 280 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot premium has changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,835 yuan/ton, closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with the highest price reaching 21,835 yuan/ton and the lowest price at 21,650 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 276,419 lots, and the holding volume was 390,859 lots [2]. 3.3 Inventory - As of November 17, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 646,000 tons, a change of 25,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 69,484 tons, a change of 4,742 tons from the previous trading day; LME aluminum inventory is 550,200 tons, a change of - 2,175 tons from the previous trading day. The aluminum alloy social inventory is 72,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,000 tons [2][4]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 17, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,915 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,940 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 320 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,816 yuan/ton, closed at 2,817 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with the highest price reaching 2,840 yuan/ton and the lowest price at 2,774 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 505,612 lots, and the holding volume was 390,494 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 17, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,800 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum is 17,000 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,900 yuan/ton, a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5]. 3.8 Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The domestic supply - demand fundamentals are stable. Overseas production cuts and power cost pressures exist. Consumption is growing well, and the peak season is expected from November to December. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices may be limited, and the upside potential may be opened if inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - Alumina: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Although there are some production cuts, they are not large - scale. The social inventory is increasing, and there may be disturbances from overseas mines [8]. 3.9 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [9]