烧碱下游调低接货价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is expected to increase with new capacity coming online, while demand is generally weak. Social inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The future trend depends on policies such as anti - involution and real - estate development policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is affected by increased device maintenance, and demand varies in different sectors. The price may be supported by the expected alumina plant production in Guangxi, but costs also play a role [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,601 yuan/ton (-7), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 11 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,590 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The blue carbon price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,805 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 820 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 491 yuan/ton (-26), and the PVC export profit is - 1.2 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1] - Inventory and Operation Rate: PVC factory inventory is 32.2 tons (-1.2), social inventory is 53.2 tons (-1.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1] - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.9 tons (-4.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,291 yuan/ton (-36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 147 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,442 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 776.0 yuan/ton (-31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 30.97 yuan/ton (-6.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and Operation Rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2] - Downstream Operation Rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.37% (+0.12%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes into production, while demand is weak with a general purchasing sentiment. Social inventory is decreasing slightly but still high. The futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] Caustic Soda - Supply is affected by increased device maintenance. Demand varies, with alumina plants in Shandong reducing purchase prices. The price may be supported by the expected alumina production in Guangxi, and costs also play a role [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound - Inter - delivery: Long SH12 and short SH01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [5]