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股指期货将偏弱震荡,碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强,原油、豆粕期货将偏强震荡,黄金、白银、铜期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-18 03:31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on November 18, 2025, including the weak - side shock of stock index futures, the wide - range shock of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, the weak - side shock of precious metal and base metal futures, and the strong - side shock of some energy and agricultural product futures [2][3]. - The report also provides macro - economic information and recent price trends of related commodities, which may have an impact on futures prices [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold (AU2512) and silver (AG2602) futures are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will test support levels [2][3]. - Base Metal Futures: Copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2601), alumina (AO2601), and others are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18, 2025, with support and resistance levels given [2][3]. - Energy Futures: Crude oil (SC2601) and fuel oil (FU2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [3][5]. - Agricultural Product Futures: PTA (TA601), natural rubber (RU2601), and bean meal (M2601) are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18, 2025, while PVC (V2601) and methanol (MA601) are expected to have a weak - side shock [3][7]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China - Germany high - level financial and economic dialogue promotes financial infrastructure connectivity [8]. - China protests against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan, and Premier Li Qiang has no arrangement to meet Japanese leaders during the G20 Summit [8]. - From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [8]. - In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [9]. - China conducts a final review of anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US [9]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts and economic trends [9]. - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the eurozone economy is expected to expand faster [10]. Commodity Futures Information - On November 17, most lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, and the price may break through 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton in 2026 if demand grows strongly [10]. - On November 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, and oil futures also declined, with institutions predicting lower oil prices in 2026 [11][12]. - Indonesia plans to impose an export tax on gold products, and India signs a long - term LPG purchase contract with the US [13]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On November 17, most stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [15][16]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 17, treasury bond futures closed higher, and the ten - year and thirty - year contracts are expected to have a wide - range shock on November 18 [36][40]. - Precious Metal Futures: On November 17, gold and silver futures contracts declined, with increased short - term downward pressure, but are expected to have a strong - side wide - range shock in November [43][49]. - Base Metal Futures: On November 17, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure, and are expected to have a weak - side shock on November 18 [53][58]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On November 17, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 hit the daily limit, and is expected to have a strong - side shock in November [65][66]. - Building Material Futures: On November 17, glass and soda ash futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a weak - side shock in November [89][93]. - Energy Futures: On November 17, crude oil and fuel oil futures contracts showed a downward trend, and are expected to have a strong - side shock on November 18 [98][103]. - Agricultural Product Futures: On November 17, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures contracts showed a downward trend, while natural rubber and bean meal futures contracts showed an upward trend, and their trends on November 18 are predicted accordingly [104][111].