光大期货农产品日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pork: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: On Monday, the near - term corn contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price in the Northeast production area was strong over the weekend, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase grain increased. The price in the sales area was also stable to strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell intensified. Technically, the futures price was weak in rising, and short - term long positions should stop profit. Be vigilant about the phased adjustment of the quotes in May and July [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean meal rose to a one - year high on Monday due to good demand prospects. The domestic soybean meal price declined following the import cost. It is expected to rise again today, but the increase will be lower than that of the external market. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to exceed 2.3 million tons this week, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream adopts a rolling procurement strategy [1]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to production risks in Indonesia and the weakness of the Malaysian ringgit. The production in Indonesia is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in November. In the domestic market, palm oil rose, rapeseed oil fell, and soybean oil changed little. The bottom of the oil market is brewing, and the market volatility is decreasing [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures completed the main contract change. The spot price was stable, and the short - term supply and demand were relatively balanced. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline, and the egg futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound at low levels [1]. - Pork: On Monday, the near - term pork contracts continued to adjust, and the far - term contracts followed the decline but with a limited range. The spot price in the sales area continued to decline. The current supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse, and there is still a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Short - term long positions should leave the market and wait for the opportunity of stabilization at low levels [2] 3. Market Information - Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0% [3]. - The estimated palm oil export volume of Malaysia from November 1 - 15 decreased by 44.9% (SGS data) and 10% (AmSpec data) compared with the same period last month [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills recovered to over 2 million tons last week and is expected to continue to rise. The estimated soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [3][4]. - As of November 14, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 7.74 days, 0.01 days less than the previous period and 0.80 days less than the same period last year [4]. 4. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: Include the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - Contract Basis: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][21]