FICC日报：碳酸锂表现亮眼，美联储政策引关注-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment and economic expectations, with an estimated average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and the Fed's subsequent monetary policy rhythm is affected by multiple factors, including the candidates for the Fed Chairman [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on commodities with high certainty, such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals, and consider buying them on dips [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The domestic economic foundation needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment, but in October, the manufacturing PMI, export data, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry all showed different degrees of decline [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The US government's shutdown has ended, but the US manufacturing index has declined, and employment data is weak. The release of important economic data and the candidates for the Fed Chairman will affect the subsequent monetary policy [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non-ferrous sector is boosted by the global easing expectation, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the agricultural products are affected by Sino-US negotiations and weather expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [4]. Important News - The Chinese government emphasizes building a strong domestic market and developing new quality productive forces. There are also diplomatic and trade events such as Sino-US and South Korea-US economic and trade negotiations, and India-US energy cooperation [1][2][5]. - There are military conflicts and energy supply changes, such as Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and OPEC+'s decision to increase production [2][3][5].