中原期货晨会纪要-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets showed mixed trends on November 18, 2025. Major stock indices in the US declined, while some commodities like CBOT soybeans and domestic metals such as gold and silver had positive movements. In the macro - economic aspect, various events including diplomatic responses, financial dialogues, and policy - related decisions influenced market sentiment. Different sectors in the commodities market had their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the A - share market continued its high - level adjustment [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Indices: On November 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped to 46590.24, a decrease of 1.182% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index fell to 22708.07, down 0.841%; the S&P 500 decreased to 6672.41, a decline of 0.916%; and the Hang Seng Index dropped to 26384.28, down 0.708% [2]. - Other Macro Indicators: SHIBOR overnight increased to 1.51, up 10.638%; the dollar index slightly decreased to 99.53, down 0.004%; the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.10 [2]. - Commodity Futures: In the international market, COMEX gold decreased to 4045.10, down 0.962%; COMEX silver dropped to 50.05, down 0.694%; LME copper decreased to 10766.50, down 0.733%. In the domestic market, gold increased to 931.24, up 0.192%; silver rose to 11983.00, up 0.419%; copper decreased to 86320.00, down 0.150% [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Diplomatic and International Relations: China has and will continue to lodge solemn representations and strong protests against Japan's Prime Minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. During the G20 Summit, there is no arrangement for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders. China and Germany held the fourth high - level financial and economic dialogue, and both sides welcomed cross - listing of depositary receipts [7]. - Domestic Economic Data: From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased [7][8]. - Industrial Policies: China will conduct a final review of anti - dumping and counter - vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US. The real estate market is showing a trend of being dominated by second - hand housing transactions and gradually stabilizing [8]. - International Monetary Policy: The Fed's vice - chairperson believes that the downward risk of employment has increased, and the upward risk of inflation may have slightly decreased recently. A Fed governor advocates another interest rate cut in December [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On November 17, peanut futures closed at 7958 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.20%. Short - term trading can be long at low prices near the 7900 - yuan support level, but beware of price drops due to increased supply [11]. - Sugar: On November 17, sugar futures closed at 5458 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The supply - side pressure is obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Corn: On November 17, the corn main contract closed at 2182 yuan/ton, flat. The market lacks a strong driver, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Other Agricultural Products: The prices of other agricultural products such as eggs, cotton, etc. also showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on supply - demand fundamentals [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Pay attention to the support at the annual low [13]. - Urea: The supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to run in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with coking coal in the 1100 - 1300 yuan range and coke in the 1600 - 1800 yuan range [13]. - Paper Pulp: The supply - demand is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 5450 - 5350 yuan support. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [13][15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The market macro - sentiment has cooled, and copper and aluminum are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro - risks [15]. - Alumina: The fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [15]. - Steel Products: The steel prices have rebounded at a low level, but the upward height is limited. The pressure on rebar is around 3150 yuan, and that on hot - rolled coils is around 3350 yuan [15]. - Silicon Ferroalloys: They mainly follow the macro and black - series fluctuations. The alloy's own supply - demand drive is not strong [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term strong pattern continues. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and beware of downstream procurement caution and import pressure [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The A - share market continues its high - level adjustment. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, reduce positions, and use options to sell straddle strategies [16][17].