宏观点评：10月财政数据的4点关注-20251118

Revenue Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[1] - October fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.16%[1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%[3] Expenditure Trends - Total fiscal expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion, up 2% year-on-year[1] - October fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion, reflecting a significant decline of 9.78% year-on-year[1] - The expenditure progress for October accounted for only 6% of the annual total, below the seasonal average of 6.5%[9] Non-Tax Revenue and Land Sales - Non-tax revenue in October was 191.4 billion, down 33% year-on-year, marking a five-year low[3] - Government fund revenue in October was 375.6 billion, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year[10] - Land transfer revenue fell to 268 billion, down 27.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the decline in government fund revenue[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected deficit rate of around 4%[2] - Total fiscal expenditure for 2026 is anticipated to reach 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion compared to 2025[2] - The focus will shift towards "investment in people" alongside traditional infrastructure investments[4]