宏观周报：国内10月社融及经济数据显示内需增长有所放缓-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report shows that domestic social financing and economic data indicate a slowdown in domestic demand growth. In October, economic data showed weak domestic demand, with consumption, investment, and manufacturing all experiencing varying degrees of decline. Social financing and credit growth also slowed down, mainly due to reduced fiscal support and insufficient effective demand from the private sector. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the potential support from new policy - based financial instruments and local government bond balance limits in the remaining two months of the year, ensuring the achievement of the annual growth target. Abroad, the US government shutdown affected economic data release and economic activities, and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision faced internal differences [3][15][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - Consumption: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. The growth of retail sales of goods continued to weaken, while service retail and catering improved. The growth of consumer goods retail sales excluding automobiles was 4.0%. Holiday - driven travel and service - related consumption increased, but the per - capita consumption was lower than last year, and the demand for durable goods such as cars and home appliances declined rapidly [15]. - Investment: From January to October, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40,814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Excluding real - estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. Newly - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and sales volume decreased by 9.6% [3][15]. - Industrial Production: In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to October, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in both supply and demand [3][4]. - Foreign Trade: In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports increased by 7.1%, and imports decreased by 0.2% [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - Overall Situation: In October, financial data generally slowed down. The growth rates of social financing, credit, and M1 declined. The increment of social financing in October was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The increment of new RMB loans was 22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 billion yuan [34]. - Structural Features: Bill financing increased year - on - year, corporate credit was weak, and household financing contracted. Bill financing increased by 33.12 billion yuan year - on - year. Corporate short - term and medium - long - term loans were - 19 billion and 3 billion yuan respectively. Household short - term and medium - long - term loans both had net repayments [34]. 3.3 Price - CPI: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, and non - food prices increased by 0.9% [3][39]. - PPI: In October, the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for the third consecutive month. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year [39]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - US Economy: In September, US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly due to the decline in rent prices. The US federal government shutdown affected economic data release and economic activities, causing direct losses to the economy [44][45]. - Eurozone Economy: Relevant economic data such as the Eurozone HICP were released, and the performance of the manufacturing and service industries was also presented [12]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Exchange Rates: In November, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted upwards to below 7.10. The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future, but short - term disturbances from external risks should be watched out for [52]. - Interest Rates: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and treasury bond yields were presented, showing the market's interest - rate situation [53].