尿素早评20251118：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, prices are supported at low levels. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 increased from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 went up from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1590.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change; Henan dropped from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.62% change; Hebei fell from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, a - 1.23% change; Jiangsu declined from 1590.00 yuan/ton to 1580.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change. [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 930.00 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased from 2980.00 yuan/ton to 3000.00 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase; the price of melamine in Jiangsu rose from 5150.00 yuan/ton to 5200.00 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, with a high of 1667 yuan/ton, a low of 1641 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1656 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 254752 hands. [1] Trading Strategy - Sell option profit - taking, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1]