光大期货软商品日报-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.12% to 64.21 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.22% to 13,445 yuan per ton, and the main contract position increased by 14,902 lots to 571,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,315 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton from the previous day. Globally, there are still macro - level disturbances, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp in December is below 50%, and the U.S. dollar index is strong. The USDA monthly report increased the global cotton production forecast, mainly from the U.S., China, and Brazil, and the global cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to increase year - on - year. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure is significant, with the commercial cotton inventory increasing by over 1.2 million tons in two weeks. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may adjust under supply pressure in the short term, but the adjustment range is limited, and the overall pattern is expected to be volatile [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.902 million tons or 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 292,000 tons or 16.40%. The spot sugar prices in various regions in China have been lowered. The Brazilian sugar production decreased significantly month - on - month but was still higher than the same period last year. Three sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. The new sugar quotes of traders are moderate. There is no new market driver in the short term. The price is under pressure and approaching the lower limit of the range, but the cost support is effective. It is expected to remain in a weak range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: The international macro - environment has disturbances, and the USDA report increases the global cotton production forecast. The domestic short - term supply pressure is high. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - Sugar: The Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase year - on - year. The domestic sugar prices are lowered, and the market lacks new drivers. It is expected to be in a weak range [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10, a change of 10; the main contract basis is 1356, with no change. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,579 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15 yuan per ton; the national spot price is 14,801 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5 yuan per ton [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 62, a change of - 9. Some data on the basis and spot prices are missing [2]. Market Information - On November 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,396, a decrease of 5 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 822. The cotton arrival prices in different regions in China are provided [2]. - On November 17, the yarn comprehensive load was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, an increase of 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - On November 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,622, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 183 [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, showing the historical data trends of these indicators [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]