碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场震荡上行，供需双强支撑价格-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current lithium carbonate market is in an upward - trending oscillation phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the high - level operation of the supply side and the expected production cut in December. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the expected resumption of mining production restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan in the short term [2]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips near support levels [2]. Summary by Directory Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Lithium Salt Price Changes: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market increased by 8.48% week - on - week to 86,950 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at a deep discount of - 410 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.15% to 87,360 yuan/ton, with an open interest increase of 5.26% to 516,778 lots. The intraday amplitude exceeded 3%, indicating intense long - short competition [2]. - Lithium Salt Price Table: The table shows price changes of various lithium salts. For example, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 82,300 to 87,360, a 6.15% increase; the delivered price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased from 80,150 to 86,950, an 8.48% increase [4]. - Lithium Salt Premium and Discount Changes: Whether classified by raw materials or enterprises, the premium and discount of lithium salts have changed. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials decreased from - 50 to - 200, a change of - 150 [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - Supply - Production: Lithium salt plant capacity utilization remained at a high level of 75.34%. November production is expected to be the same as October, but there is an expected production cut in salt - lake lithium extraction after December. The production of cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate also increased [2]. - Demand - Consumption: Energy - storage cell production increased by 5% year - on - year, and the export proportion of new energy vehicles increased to 44.2%. The monthly production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 1% and 4% respectively [2]. - Import and Export: Lithium ore port inventory decreased by 5.62% week - on - week to 84,000 tons, with African raw materials as the main trade flow. Freight rates remained stable. The cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 74,687 yuan/ton, and production profit increased significantly by 128.23% to 12,262.8 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: Social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks to a historical low of 124,000 tons, and warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.59% to 27,170 lots [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - Market - Cathode Materials: Information on the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles is provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary part [44 - 61].