国债期货日报：财政支出力度回调，国债期货全线收涨-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is suppressed by the rising risk appetite driven by the strong stock market, and the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.20%, down 0.20% (-2.38%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% (-1.61%) [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 99.54, up 0.25 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1050, up 0.011 (+0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.51, up 0.05 (+3.13%); DR007 is 1.52, up 0.06 (+3.84%); R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, up 0.00 (-0.16%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, up 0.00 (-0.16%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing Prices and Price Changes: On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 116.45 yuan respectively. Their price changes were 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.33% respectively [2]. - Net Basis Spreads: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.009 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, 0.014 yuan, and - 0.332 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Fiscal Situation: From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - Central Bank Operations: On November 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market Interest Rates: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview There is no specific data - based content provided in the given text for this section. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the two - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [37][40][48]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the five - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [50][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the ten - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [57][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [64][67][70]. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: With the rebound of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis spread of the 2512 contract [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side traders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].