Report Investment Ratings - Bullish sentiment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal, Rapeseed oil [1] - Bearish sentiment: Palm oil (Weak consolidation), Cotton (Short - term weak adjustment), Jujube (Beware of rebound), Live pigs (Beware of rebound) [1] - Short - term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] Core Views - Soybean meal: Trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums have led to bullish sentiment. With domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories falling this week, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustments and monitor Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed. After a correction, there are bullish opportunities, and short - selling should be treated with caution. Pay attention to the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - Palm oil: In November, the first 15 - day export data of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. With the recent rapid recovery of import profit, be cautious about chasing long positions, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [1][9]. - Soybean oil: There is a lack of bullish support in the US soybean oil market. Although domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased month - on - month, it is still higher than the five - year average. Considering trade costs and Brazilian weather, it is in a bullish consolidation. Monitor Brazilian weather [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero imports in November. The port inventory has decreased significantly, showing a bullish oscillation. Short - selling needs caution [1]. - Cotton: USDA's new report is bearish on the supply side. Globally, the cotton market is expected to have a short - term weak adjustment, but the downward space is limited. Domestically, there is short - term pressure, but downstream demand has some resilience. Consider short - term range trading and long - term low - buying opportunities [1][13]. - Jujube: As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, it will gradually shift to a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Maintain a bearish attitude in general. Do not over - short when the spot stabilizes, and keep a short - term wait - and - see attitude [1][17]. - Live pigs: The short - and medium - term supply pattern is still loose. Although the near - month contract price is close to historical lows, do not over - short the peak - season contracts. Consider rolling operations. Be moderately bullish on the far - month contracts in H2 2026, and also pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan or 1.58% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; soybean oil mill inventory was 747.71 million tons, down 14.24 million tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory was 99.29 million tons, down 0.57 million tons week - on - week [3]. - Market sentiment: Trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums have led to bullish sentiment [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 1.65% from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons week - on - week [6]. - Market sentiment: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs has cooled. After a correction, there are bullish opportunities [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of November 14, the national key area commercial inventory was 65.32 million tons, up 5.59 million tons week - on - week [9]. - Export: In November, the first 15 - day export data of Malaysian palm oil was weak [9]. - Market sentiment: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [1][9]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [10]. - Inventory: National commercial cotton inventory was 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons [10]. - Market sentiment: USDA's report is bearish on the supply side. Domestically, there is short - term pressure, but downstream demand has some resilience [1][13]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 9270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.87% from the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [16]. - Market sentiment: As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, it will gradually shift to a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Maintain a bearish attitude in general [1][17]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2601 closed at 11695 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day [18]. - Inventory: National sample enterprise生猪存栏量 was 3844.62 million tons, up 5.61 million tons month - on - month [18]. - Market sentiment: The short - and medium - term supply pattern is still loose. Do not over - short the peak - season contracts. Be moderately bullish on the far - month contracts in H2 2026 [1][19].
中辉农产品观点-20251118
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-18 05:15