2025 年 10 月财政数据快评：财政支出离完成预算有多远？

Revenue Insights - National general public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[2] - Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion CNY, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion CNY[2] - In October alone, public budget revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure from January to October was 225,825 billion CNY, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth[2] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion CNY, up 6.3%, while local government expenditure grew by 1.2% to 191,098 billion CNY[2] - October's expenditure saw a significant decline of 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with the previous month's growth of 3.1%[3] Fiscal Policy and Budget Completion - To meet the budget target, expenditure growth in the last two months must reach approximately 12.7%[3] - The fiscal policy intensity index has been declining, indicating a reduction in fiscal policy effectiveness despite strong performance in major tax categories[4] - The projected shortfall in the first public account expenditure is estimated at 670.1 billion CNY, with a completion rate of 97.7% against the budget[4] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund budget revenue in October plummeted by 18.4%, primarily due to a 27.3% drop in land transfer income[23] - Fund budget expenditure also decreased significantly by 38.2%, with land-related expenditures falling by 30.8%[23] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the second public account showed a revenue decline of 2.8% and an expenditure increase of 15.4%[23]