Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree Palm Oil: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - First-grade Soybean Oil: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - Warehouse Receipts: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - Malaysian Palm Oil Export: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - US Soybean Production and Export: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - Rapeseed Oil Import: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]
油脂数据日报-20251118
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-18 05:43