煤炭月度供需数据点评：10月：火电增速逆势向上，煤价上涨超预期-20251118

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [6][39]. Core Insights - In October, thermal power demand increased against the trend, leading to an unexpected rise in coal prices. The supply of raw coal showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production from January to October reaching 3.973 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but with a declining growth rate [5][6]. - The report highlights that while fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, thermal power demand saw a notable increase of 7.3% in October, contrasting with declines in other sectors such as real estate [5][6]. - Coal imports showed a downward trend, with cumulative imports from January to October at 388 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. In October alone, imports were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that coal prices in October rose unexpectedly, driven by increased demand from downstream power plants and a reduction in inventory at ports. The report suggests that if coal prices continue to rise significantly, it may attract policy attention [6][7]. Summary by Sections Supply - From January to October 2025, raw coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with October production at 407 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year and 1.16% month-on-month [5][6]. Demand - The demand for thermal power increased by 7.3% in October, while cumulative demand for fixed asset investment showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year. Other sectors like real estate and cement experienced significant declines [5][6]. Imports - Coal imports decreased, with a cumulative total of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11% year-on-year drop. October imports were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year [5][6]. Prices - Coal prices saw an unexpected rise in October, with various types of coal showing different price trends. The report notes that the price increase is supported by strong demand and reduced supply expectations [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal sector in the fourth quarter, with specific stocks recommended for investment based on their performance and market conditions [6][7].