美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being favored due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, and the soybean supply is sufficient. Favorable factors from the US Department of Agriculture are driving up the price of US soybeans. The oil mill operating rate is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will fluctuate and rebound, while the soybean meal contract will maintain a volatile trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The soybean No. 1 2601 contract rebounded again. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened, and the premium on the futures market increased. The soybean meal 01 contract maintained a volatile trend. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,990 yuan/ton to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the premium on the futures market narrowed [4]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Production and Sales - Domestic soybean production decreased slightly, with the total output slightly reduced by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. The sales progress of domestic soybeans varied, with slower progress in North China and faster progress in the Northeast. As of November 14, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong was 85%, 85%, 86%, and 92% respectively. The quality of new soybeans was differentiated, and high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang were in high demand [4]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Import and Supply - In October, domestic soybean imports were 9.48 million tons, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient. As of November 14, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.82 million tons, a decrease from the previous month; the port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, also a decrease from the previous month but still at a high level [4]. 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report reduced the US soybean yield per unit and total output, as well as the ending inventory; the South American output remained unchanged; the global ending inventory was further reduced. Although the data in the US Department of Agriculture report was bullish, the futures market first fell and then rose. Coupled with the China - US trade agreement, US soybeans are expected to continue to rise [5]. 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased again. The profit of oil mill crushing decreased due to the high cost of Brazilian soybeans. As of November 14, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.15%, an increase from the previous month; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, an increase from the previous month; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.641 million tons, an increase from the previous month; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 992,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease from the previous month. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.23 days, an increase from the previous month [5][6]. 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock breeding sector, the pig price was low, and the breeding was in continuous loss. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 205.64 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity was slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the reproductive sow inventory in large - scale farms was delayed, and the inventory increased slightly in October; the number of piglets born increased again, but the sales volume continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the inventory; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price fell again, the breeding continued to be in loss, the number of culled poultry increased, the inventory decreased slightly in October, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed output was 29.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; the feed demand was still strong [6].