国贸商品指数日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with new energy materials leading the gains and precious metals leading the losses. Industrial products showed mixed performance, while most agricultural products declined [1]. - The steel market is currently in a stage dominated by weak reality and supported by costs. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. - The decline in basic metals is due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite [1]. - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. In the short term, some factors support the oil price [1]. - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. Domestic soybean meal may continue to trade in a range, and the three major oils may continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Performance of Different Commodity Categories - New Energy Materials: Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit with a 9.00% increase [1]. - Shipping Futures: All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.73% [1]. - Black Series: All black - series commodities rose, with iron ore up 1.81%. The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage [1]. - Chemicals: Most chemicals rose, with urea up 0.79% [1]. - Energy Products: Most energy products rose, with LPG up 0.78% [1]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals led the losses, with Shanghai silver down 4.08% [1]. - Basic Metals: All basic metals declined, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.39% [1]. - Oilseeds and Oils: Most oilseeds and oils declined, with soybeans down 1.23% [1]. - Non - metallic Building Materials: All non - metallic building materials declined, with glass down 1.15% [1]. - Agricultural By - products: Most agricultural by - products declined, with live pigs down 0.81% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Commodity Categories 3.2.1 Black Series - The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Steel futures prices rose on Monday due to the rebound of raw material prices and the start of environmental inspections in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. However, in the short term, the expectation of large - scale economic stimulus has cooled, and there is still downward pressure on the steel market due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. 3.2.2 Basic Metals - The decline in basic metals is mainly due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite and a general softening of the non - ferrous metal market [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with positive factors including the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, and negative factors including OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and weak global economic demand. In the short term, factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the oil price [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds and Oils - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. The domestic soybean meal market is under the pressure of weak fundamentals and the support of US soybean costs, and may continue to trade in a range. The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil rebounding. Although the Indonesian biodiesel policy boosted palm oil prices, the decline in export demand limited its increase [1].