银河期货每日早盘观察-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors presenting various characteristics. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are showing signs of support after a decline, while bond futures are favored due to a fall in risk appetite. In the agricultural products market, protein meal demand is good, and the US soybean market is strong, while sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. In the black metal market, steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective. In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are under pressure due to the callback of interest - rate cut expectations, and copper is in short - term oscillation [18][22][25][28][58][68][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The decline shows initial signs of support. The market withstood pressure on Monday and traded sideways. Although facing negative news over the weekend, the index did not fall significantly due to the active performance of the lithium - battery industry chain. It is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. Trading strategies include going long at low levels, conducting IM/IC futures - spot arbitrage, and implementing bull spread options [18][20][21][22]. - Bond Futures: Risk appetite declined on Monday, and the bond market was favored. Bond futures closed higher across the board. In the short term, the bond market has both bullish and bearish factors, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach. Arbitrage strategies include holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - to - next - quarter spread [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The demand is good, and the US soybean market continues to be strong. Driven by positive soybean crushing reports, the US soybean market rose significantly. However, the overall international soybean supply is abundant, and the upside is limited. Domestic soybean meal has a large supply pressure and poor profit. It is recommended to sell wide - straddle options [25][26][27]. - Sugar: Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are in a range - bound oscillation. Globally, major sugar - producing areas are increasing production. The international sugar price shows signs of bottom - building and short - term oscillation. In the domestic market, the supply pressure is increasing, but there is some support for the price. It is recommended to operate within the range for unilateral trading and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [28][30][31][32]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The differentiation is obvious, and the oscillation continues. The Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil in China is expected to continue reducing inventory. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for unilateral trading [34][35][36]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn futures rebounded, and the domestic northeast corn price is strong, while the north - China corn price is relatively stable. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn. Also, shrink the spread between the 01 - month corn and starch [37][38][39]. - Hogs: The supply is generally stable, and the spot price fluctuates slightly. The short - term pressure on hog slaughter has improved, but the overall inventory is still high. It is recommended to short - sell a small amount and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. - Peanuts: The spot price is strong, but the futures market is in bottom - level oscillation. The domestic peanut price is rising, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The oil mill has not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the 05 - month peanut on dips, conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42][43]. - Eggs: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the short - term production - capacity reduction is expected to be slow. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [45][46][49][50]. - Apples: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, but the market is in the off - season, and the sales space is squeezed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the strong fundamentals but large price fluctuations [51][52][54]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price is in oscillation. In November, new cotton is on the market in large quantities, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering the optimistic result of Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [55][56][57]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The night - session steel prices continued to oscillate, and the coal and coke prices fell significantly. The overall output of the five major steel products declined last week, and the inventory continued to decline. It is recommended to stay in the range - bound oscillation for unilateral trading and go long on the coil - to - rebar spread for arbitrage [58][59]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has weakened, and some coal varieties have corrected from high levels. The coking - coal spot market has a fear of high prices, and the auction failure rate has increased. The fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and consider going long on dips in the medium term [60][61][62]. - Iron Ore: Take a bearish approach. The iron - ore price fell slightly in the night session. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly at a high level. It is recommended to short - sell for unilateral trading [63][64][65]. - Ferroalloys: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation supported by costs. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable with a slight increase. The supply and demand are both weak, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to stay in the bottom - level oscillation for unilateral trading and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: The expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to correct, and precious metals are under pressure. The prices of London gold and silver fell, and the US dollar index rebounded. Due to the hawkish signals from the Fed and market risk - aversion, precious metals are under pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies [68][69][70][71]. - Copper: Short - term oscillation. The copper price is under pressure due to the decreased probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading strategies, with a long - term bullish view [71][72][73]. - Alumina: There is a production - reduction expectation overseas, and the spot price has stabilized. The short - term supply and demand are still in surplus, but the downstream is stocking up. Overseas, there is a supply gap and a production - reduction expectation. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term and may rebound after production reduction [74][75][77]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Pay attention to this week's economic data and capital flow. The fundamentals are still strong. The overseas aluminum market is in short supply, and the domestic consumption has resilience. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [78][79]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has decreased. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [80][81][83][84]. - Zinc: Wide - range oscillation. The domestic mine supply is tight, and some smelters are reducing production. The export enthusiasm is high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and go long on dips for unilateral trading, and hold the SHFE - LME arbitrage [85][87][88][89]. - Lead: Range - bound oscillation. The domestic lead - recycling enterprises are resuming production, and the downstream consumption is weakening. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions and pay attention to macro factors [90][91]. - Nickel: The cost is weakening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The supply exceeds demand, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options [92][93]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The market is weak, and the cost is declining. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [94][95][96]. - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating weakly. The demand has weakened in November, and some enterprises have stopped production. The price is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage is recommended [97]. - Polysilicon: Oscillate until the platform company is established. The supply and demand both decreased in November, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot is firm, but the futures may fall if the platform company is not established. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and take profit on PS2512 and PS2601 positive arbitrage [98][99][100].