纸浆数据日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - Futures Prices: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - Spot Prices: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - Outer - disk Quotes: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - Import Costs: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - Supply: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - Demand: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - Basis: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - Import Profit: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].