citic securities·2025-11-18 06:05Market Overview - Chinese stock market continued to weaken, with military stocks rising amid Sino-Japanese tensions[3] - European stock markets generally declined, with investors awaiting U.S. economic data and Nvidia's earnings report[3] - U.S. stock markets also fell, driven by a pullback in technology stocks, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment[3] Forex and Commodities - Geopolitical risks persist, but signs show recovery in activities at a key Russian port, leading to a slight drop in international oil prices[4] - Gold prices fell as expectations for a Fed rate cut weakened, with international gold down 0.48% to $4,074.5 per ounce[4][26] Fixed Income - The bond market remained relatively calm, with U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing a slight rebound[5] - Amazon's $15 billion bond issuance became a market focus, attracting approximately $80 billion in subscriptions[5][30] U.S. Midterm Elections - The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, serving as a critical test for Trump's administration[6] - Current polls show the Republican Party leading in the Senate, while the House of Representatives remains uncertain[6] Key Stock Performances - Huazhu Group reported its best performance since 2023, with RevPar expected to turn positive in Q4 2025[8] - Atlassian anticipates a 22.5% year-on-year growth in cloud business revenue for FY2026, despite concerns over AI impacting developer roles[8] A-Share Market - A-shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3,972 points, amid rising military stocks due to Sino-Japanese tensions[16] - Lithium battery stocks surged following optimistic price forecasts from Ganfeng Lithium's chairman[16] Asia-Pacific Market - The Asia-Pacific stock market saw mixed results, with the Philippines and South Korea rebounding by 3.5% and 1.9%, respectively[20] - Chinese and Hong Kong markets experienced declines, both down 0.7%[20] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September is anticipated to be released on Thursday, influencing market expectations[4][26] - Fed officials expressed concerns over increasing risks in the labor market, with a 42% probability of a rate cut in December[30]