集运日报：02合约高开高走，盘面整体偏强震荡，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 02 contract opened higher and trended upward, with the overall market showing a strong oscillation, which is in line with the daily report's expectation. It is advisable to consider partial profit - taking and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the long - position sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In October, the US S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On November 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a 6.73% increase, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [4] - The 2508 - 2606 contracts' daily limit was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts was 100 lots [5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, focus on spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt due to large fluctuations in each contract [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]