养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market of the feed, breeding, and oil industries shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are in a state of supply - demand balance adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as international market conditions, policies, and seasonal changes [3][4][5]. - For individual products, some are recommended for temporary observation, some for specific trading strategies like selling put options or low - buying on dips, and some for arbitrage operations [3][4][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: - The price of domestic new soybeans has cooled the purchasing sentiment of the middle and lower reaches, but farmers' reluctance to sell remains. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to run strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - After the bullish factors in the November supply - demand report were realized, the price of soybean No.2 followed the decline of US soybeans and is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, also recommended for waiting and seeing [10]. - Oils: - Soybean oil has sufficient supply and increasing consumption, with fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [10]. - Rapeseed oil has a continuous marginal inventory reduction trend, and the market sentiment is boosted. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Palm oil has stabilized after a previous sharp decline, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to be in a bottom - building and volatile state, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options [10]. - Protein: - The cost - side support of soybean meal is obvious, and it is expected to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Rapeseed meal has short - term supply shortages, but the expectation of supply is alleviated, and it is in a seasonal off - season for demand. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Energy and By - products: - Corn has a slight rebound expectation, but the pressure of concentrated supply limits the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Corn starch follows the slight rebound of corn prices and is also recommended for waiting and seeing [10]. - Breeding: - The price of live pigs is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to switch to waiting and seeing [10]. - The price of eggs is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage operations, it is recommended to wait and see, except for some operations such as going long on the corn 5 - 1 spread at low prices and positive arbitrage on the live pig 1 - 3 spread at low prices [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in different sectors, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, etc. [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, showing the supply - side situation of the oils and oilseeds market [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises, reflecting the supply - demand relationship in the feed market [18]. 3.2.3 Breeding - Daily Data: It shows the daily price data of live pigs and eggs, including prices in different regions and price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [19][20][21]. - Weekly Data: It presents the weekly price, cost, profit, slaughter data, and inventory data of live pigs and eggs, reflecting the overall situation of the breeding market [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Breeding End (Live Pigs, Eggs): It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related price data charts, which can be used to analyze the price trends and market conditions of the breeding end [23][25][26]. - Oils and Oilseeds: - Palm Oil: It shows charts related to Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profits, and domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume, etc., to help analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends of palm oil [33][34][37]. - Soybean Oil: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, inventory, and trading volume, etc., to analyze the soybean oil market [40][42][43]. - Peanuts: It presents charts of peanut arrival and shipment volume, pressing profit, operating rate, and inventory, etc., to understand the peanut market [45][47]. - Feed End: - Corn: It shows charts of corn futures prices, spot prices, basis, inventory, import volume, and processing profit, etc., to analyze the corn market [49][54][55]. - Corn Starch: It includes charts of corn starch futures prices, spot prices, basis, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit, etc., to analyze the corn starch market [57][59][66]. - Rapeseed Products: It presents charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, pressing volume, and pressing profit, etc., to analyze the rapeseed products market [59][63][64]. - Soybean Meal: It shows charts of US soybean growth indicators, inventory, basis, and price spreads, etc., to analyze the soybean meal market [66][71][78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It provides charts of historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options, to help analyze the option market [81][82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, which can be used to analyze the market supply and demand and price trends from the perspective of warehouse receipts [84][85][86].