全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 2 期：北美经理人持仓自10月高点回落-20251118

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a slight increase, with MSCI Global up by 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.2. [7][36] - Among developed markets, France's CAC40 index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 2.8%, while Australia's S&P 200 had the weakest performance, declining by 1.5%. [7][36] - In emerging markets, India's Sensex30 performed best with a rise of 1.6%, while the ChiNext index saw the largest decline at 3.0%. [7][36] Trading Sentiment - North American manager holdings index saw a significant decline, while European and Hong Kong markets experienced increased trading volume. [20][23] - The trading volume for the Hang Seng Index increased to 151 billion shares, while the S&P 500 saw a decrease to 42 billion shares. [20][23] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, while sentiment in the US declined, with the NAAIM manager holdings index dropping to 87.9%. [23][30] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong and the US were revised upward. [69] - The 2025 EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index was adjusted from 2072 to 2077, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +7.5. [69][70] - In the US, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was raised from 271 to 272, with healthcare leading the revisions. [69][70] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment across major global markets declined, influenced by factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks in Europe. [7][56] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreased, reflecting the impact of Fed rate cut expectations and tech stock corrections. [7][56] Fund Flows - The Fed's hawkish stance has led to a decrease in rate cut expectations, with the market now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a cut in December. [56][62] - In terms of micro liquidity, significant capital inflows were observed in the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing a net inflow of 164 billion HKD. [62][66] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector led performance across various markets, with notable gains in Hong Kong (7.2%), the US (3.9%), and Europe (4.9%). [16][19] - Conversely, the non-essential consumer sector lagged in performance across multiple markets, including a decline of 2.7% in the US. [16][19]