区间整理：有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side is tightening with rising costs, providing some support for silicon prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream buyers mainly making rigid purchases, limiting the upside space for silicon prices. It is expected that the short - term silicon price will remain in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [3] - For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The price of petroleum coke has risen slightly, while the prices of silica and electrodes have remained stable. As the southwest production area enters the flat - dry water period, the power cost has increased significantly. [3] - In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton. [38] 3.1.2 Supply - Sichuan has entered the flat - water period with higher electricity prices, and Yunnan has entered the dry - water period. Factories in these two regions have expanded their production suspension scope due to increased costs and no obvious upward drive for industrial silicon prices. The output in the northwest region also decreased slightly last week, and the overall supply shows a contracting trend. It is expected that the output in November will drop to less than 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%. [3] - On the week of November 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 6 compared with the previous week. [39] 3.1.3 Demand - The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, the organic silicon industry has a relatively consistent expectation of production reduction, and the silicon - aluminum alloy has no production increase or decrease plan with stable operation. [3] 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most silicon enterprises are in normal production. Due to the relatively low price, the silicon enterprises' willingness to ship is low, and the inventory of silicon enterprises continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - It is expected that the short - term silicon price will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro sentiment and the start - up situation of the supply side. [3] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week's polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons. As of November 13, the polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with September. In November, some manufacturers started to reduce production, and the monthly output may decline to about 120,000 tons. [69] 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year over - drafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The number of domestic bidding projects has decreased, and overseas demand has declined. The component side is under great pressure. With the increase in costs, there is an expectation of price increase for components, but the downstream acceptance is not high. Some component factories have reduced their start - up, and it is expected that the output this month will decline by about 2GW. [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 13, the total polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW. As of November 14, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,120 lots. [3] 3.2.4 Market Outlook - There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. Continued attention should be paid to the platform launch and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [3] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, China's DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the DMC output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously overhauled devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend. [101] 3.3.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of DMC was 25,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.87%; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.52%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. [108] 3.3.3 Market Outlook - The industry has reached a consensus on production reduction, and the current inventory pressure is not large, so the price has increased. Future attention should be paid to the results of industry meeting consultations. [108] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - On the week of November 13, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. [116] 3.4.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of ADC12 was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%; the average price of A356 was 22,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. [119] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 13, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 546,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. As of November 14, the number of registered warehouse receipts on the exchange was 45,345 lots, equivalent to 226,700 tons of spot, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decrease. [130]