Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].
南华期货工业硅、多晶硅企业风险管理日报-20251118
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-18 07:58