瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 177,527 lots, up 15,757 lots; the position of the main contract is 484,357 lots, down 78,597 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,611 lots/ton, down 342 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 85,050 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,120 yuan/ton, up 2,930 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,010 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,545 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 170,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.45%, up 1.12%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.56%, up 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 171,798 lots, down 6,463 lots; the total put position is 167,227 lots, up 28,714 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 97.34%, up 19.637%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.44%, up 0.0914% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that in 2025, the investment growth rate of the automobile industry reached 17.5%. In the first 10 months of 2025, automobile production was 27.33 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 12.67 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 14.65 million units, unchanged year - on - year. In October 2025, automobile production was 3.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In October, the export of new energy vehicles was 256,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 15.4% and a year - on - year increase of 99.9%. From January to October, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million units, a year - on - year increase of 90.4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate, the "cost - effective champion" of batteries, has recovered, rising about 10% since October [2]