2026年公用事业行业投资策略：红利回报稳中有进，燃气降本蓄势待发

Group 1: Power Sector - The overall electricity consumption in China increased by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 77,675 billion kilowatt-hours [7][19] - The electricity consumption in July and August 2025 exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months, indicating a normalization of high electricity usage [8][10] - The contribution of the secondary industry to electricity consumption growth has decreased to below 50%, with significant increases from the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity usage [19][30] Group 2: Thermal Power - The improvement in capacity electricity prices is expected to enhance the profitability and dividend capacity of thermal power companies [3] - The stable capacity revenue from thermal power effectively hedges against fluctuations in electricity prices, transitioning the profit structure from reliance on electricity sales to a diversified model including capacity and auxiliary service revenues [40][41] - Recommended companies include Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Datang Power, which have a high proportion of large units [3][40] Group 3: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is expected to benefit from improved financial conditions due to reduced capital expenditures and interest expenses during the interest rate decline cycle [56][59] - The depreciation of the Three Gorges hydropower units is expected to peak in 2026, opening up profit space for hydropower companies [52][59] - Recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, and Chuanwei Energy, which are major players in the hydropower sector [56][59] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is expected to see growth as the approval of 10 new units in 2025 continues the high growth trend, enhancing the valuation of nuclear power companies [3][41] - Recommended companies include China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, which are positioned to benefit from this growth [3][41] Group 5: Renewable Energy - Wind and solar installations are expected to maintain high growth, with a total installed capacity of 1.7 billion kilowatts by September 2025, aiming for 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035 [41][39] - The introduction of local renewable energy market rules is expected to stabilize the returns of existing projects, enhancing the long-term value for green electricity operators [3][41] - Recommended companies include Xintian Green Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power [3][41] Group 6: Natural Gas - The natural gas sector is entering a cost reduction cycle, with falling oil and gas prices since early 2025, which is expected to improve profitability for urban gas companies [3][41] - The anticipated cold winter due to the La Niña effect is expected to boost gas sales volume growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3][41] - Recommended companies include China Resources Gas, Hong Kong and China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, which are quality urban gas enterprises [3][41]