从NDC和全球碳市场角度：如何看待光伏行业的未来趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for the photovoltaic industry is not as pessimistic as perceived, driven by the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) with an expected 250 GW of new installations in China by 2026 [2] - Market reforms in the electricity sector are beneficial for photovoltaics, as they will enhance the integration of solar power with other system components and improve the pricing signals for green energy [2] - The ultimate market clearing will depend on technological iterations, with silicon-perovskite tandem cells being a promising direction [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Growth Potential from NDC - The growth of the photovoltaic industry is closely linked to global climate cooperation, with significant contributions from NDC 3.0 submissions by countries like China and the EU [10][14] - The report anticipates that China will achieve 250 GW of new photovoltaic installations in 2026, contrary to industry pessimism [21] - The relationship between NDC submissions and photovoltaic growth is strong, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [19] Section 2: Marketization and System Integration - The report emphasizes that marketization is essential for the photovoltaic sector to adopt a systems engineering approach and achieve integrated development [39] - The core framework of electricity market reform focuses on pricing mechanisms and the integration of green electricity [42] - The establishment of a global carbon market is expected to enhance the pricing of green energy and improve the operational conditions for photovoltaic assets [45] Section 3: Technological Iteration for Market Clearing - The report highlights that the current surplus in advanced production capacity necessitates a shift towards technological differentiation for market clearing [51] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant technological advancements, with a focus on improving efficiency and reducing costs [63] - The report discusses the efficiency limits of various photovoltaic technologies, indicating a trend towards higher efficiency through innovations like tandem cells [58][70]