瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 12, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 1.72 million tons compared to the previous period, a 4.44% decrease, while the orders to be delivered increased by 2.43 million tons, a 10.99% increase. The total methanol port inventory increased by 5.65 million tons, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. The overall unloading speed was good [2]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity, leading to a decrease in overall production. Although some inland methanol projects resumed production last week, affected by the weak market outlook, the mid - upstream was relatively active in shipping, resulting in a decline in enterprise inventory [2]. - The Shandong Hengtong olefin plant stopped production as scheduled, causing the olefin industry's operating rate to continue to decline. There are no obvious changes in other enterprise plants in the short term, and the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,458,503 lots, a decrease of 39,029 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 206,193 lots, an increase of 57,487 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 11,052, a decrease of 167 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 234 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 319 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.34 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0564 million tons, an increase of 34,900 tons, and the inventory at South China ports was 487,200 tons, a decrease of 8400 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was - 5.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points, the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points, the operating rate of acetic acid was 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points, and the operating rate of MTBE was 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points, and the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.53%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 21.33%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.33%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]