瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase week - on - week. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to cut production due to environmental control expectations in the north and low production profits, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, but the market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure. The current main basis is still high, and the market's weak supply - demand expectation needs to be verified. Attention should be paid to whether there is a centralized production cut plan for alumina in December. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 149,936 lots, down 717 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,632 lots, up 6338 lots; the main contract trading volume is 273,587 lots, down 118,158 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2286 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2421 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis is 152 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 215 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the utilization rate of China's caustic soda production capacity decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% to 85.37%; from November 7th to 13th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 89.50%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 402,200 tons, down 3.04% week - on - week. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down week - on - week [2]