固收、宏观周报：美联储或再次转鸽-20251118

Report Information - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E-mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - US Stocks: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.45%, 0.08%, and 0.34% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -2.16% [2] - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% during the same period [2] - A-Shares: The wind all A index changed by -0.47%. Among them, large-cap stocks declined while small-cap stocks rose. The CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro-cap stocks changed by -0.80%, -1.08%, -1.26%, -0.52%, 0.89%, and 3.10% respectively [3] - Sector Performance: In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the growth sectors declined significantly. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 changed by 0.00% and -3.85% respectively. The Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index changed by -1.81% and -3.01% respectively. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by -0.56% [4] - Industry Performance: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 20 industries rose and 10 industries fell. The leading industries were catering and tourism, textile and apparel, medicine, basic chemicals, comprehensive, commercial retail, and light industry manufacturing, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0%. From the perspective of ETF performance, Hong Kong innovative drug, tourism, chemical, and Hang Seng consumer ETFs led the way, with a weekly increase of more than 3.5% [5] Bond Market - Domestic Bonds: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the 10-year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.03% compared with November 7, 2025. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond fell by 0.02 BP to 1.8140%. The yields of various maturity varieties rose and fell [6] - Funding: As of November 14, 2025, R007 was 1.4945%, up 2.68 BP from November 7, 2025; DR007 was 1.4673%, up 5.43 BP, and the spread between the two narrowed. The central bank's net investment in the open market in the past week was 6262 billion yuan [7] - Leverage Level: The bond market leverage level declined, and the 5-day average of inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025, to 7.44 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025 [9] - US Bonds: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), US bond yields increased. As of November 14, 2025, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 3 BP to 4.14%. The yields of various maturity varieties increased, and the curve shifted upward as a whole [10] Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - Foreign Exchange: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), the US dollar index declined by 0.26%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.48%, -0.04%, and 0.72% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates declined slightly [11] - Gold: In the past week (20251110 - 20251116), gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 1.93% to $4071.10 per ounce; the COMEX gold futures price rose by 2.29% to $4086.50 per ounce. The domestic gold price also rose, with the Shanghai gold spot rising by 3.27% to 948.03 yuan per gram and the futures rising by 3.43% to 950.50 yuan per gram [12] Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Fed Policy: The Fed may turn dovish again. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is less than 50%, the Fed may turn dovish again after seeing weak economic data [13] - Domestic Equity Market: A-shares are likely to maintain a high-level volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence [13] - Bond Market: The logic of the bond bull market remains unchanged, but high risk appetite is not conducive to the decline of bond yields. Bond yields are likely to move sideways and fluctuate within a narrow range [13] - Gold Market: The gold price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [13]