甲醇产业风险管理日报-20251118

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Last week, methanol prices continued to decline as the fundamental situation of the 01 contract couldn't provide support. Although there was a rebound due to factors like plant shutdowns and gas restrictions, the increasing shipments from Iran made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Even with the strong upward trend of thermal coal prices, it was still hard to support the cost of methanol in Henan. Considering the higher - than - average temperature in Iran, gas restrictions might be delayed until mid - November. The 11 - month shipments exceeded expectations, and port inventories were likely to remain high. The regional price difference indicated that the port would continue to flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market would decline. Therefore, the 01 contract of methanol might continue to decline to find support. It was recommended to hold the previously sold call options and conduct a 12 - 1 reverse spread [6]. Section Summaries Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When there is a risk of price decline and high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601, sell, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350). They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250, buy, 50% hedging ratio) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy methanol futures (MA2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2450 - 2550). They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300, sell, 75% hedging ratio, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the methanol price drops [3]. Market Analysis - Supply and Demand: The increase in Iranian shipments has put pressure on the 01 port contract. Although the increase in port inventory is limited recently, most of it is in floating storage, and the inventory is likely to remain high. The regional price difference shows that the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [6]. - Cost: Even if the thermal coal price in the northern port rises to 900, it is still difficult to support the cost of methanol in Henan [6]. - Inventory Forecast: This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to increase [6].