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瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].