偏空氛围增强能化震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and rebounding, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved up to the 15,300 yuan/ton line. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.33% to 15,295 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. After the macro - drive weakened, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,036 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,003 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly fell 0.29% to 2,030 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 466.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 457.8 yuan/barrel. At the close, it slightly fell 0.43% to 458.8 yuan/barrel. There were differences between long and short positions. The game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, combined with geopolitical factors, hindered the oil price rebound, and the oil price might fluctuate widely [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons or 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will further decline next week [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles [10]. - Methanol - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.94%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.44%, and a slight increase of 3.67% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 7,600 tons, and a significant increase of 112,000 tons compared with 1.8641 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.23%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 63.64%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month significant decrease of 6.54%. As of November 14, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 457 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant increase of 246,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 369,300 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 9,400 tons, and a slight decrease of 21,200 tons compared with 390,500 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Crude Oil - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a significant increase of 462,000 barrels/day compared with the same period last year, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.413 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.166 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 346,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 798,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a week - on - week slight recovery of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average in August, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts compared with the average in October, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,295 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 495 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,030 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,030 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.5 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 458.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.), but no specific chart analysis is provided [15][28][40]