油料产业风险管理日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The trading focus of the current soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases announced by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory level remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear single - sided driver. In the near - term, it will price in the seasonal de - stocking logic and be stronger, while the far - term will be pressured by Brazilian supply and remain weak, with the long - near positive spread logic continuing [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of additional negotiations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed will arrive after November. The subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, and it is generally regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.4% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: Trade merchants with high protein inventory can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Soybean Meal: The external market focuses on the supply - side yield adjustment and the realization of Chinese purchases in the balance sheet. The domestic market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to seasonal de - stocking in the near - term and Brazilian supply pressure in the far - term [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: It remains in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration after November [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices. The external market's strength in pricing US soybean purchases and the inability of the domestic market to purchase commercial US soybeans maintain the firmness of the domestic market. The centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in the near - month eases the pressure [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: The high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in the near - term, and the seasonal decline in soybean meal inventory. The smooth planting in Brazil and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America suppress the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - term is repaired under the background of Sino - US negotiations and purchases [6][9]. 3.4 Market Data - Futures Prices: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided [10]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the basis and spot - futures spreads, are presented [11]. - Import Costs and Profits: The import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the import profits of Canadian rapeseed, are given [12].