国债期货日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pay attention to the central bank's policy operations. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, while in the medium - term, there is still room for an upward trend supported by the fundamentals. Mid - term long positions should be held, and short - term long positions at low levels can be closed at high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures continued the volatile pattern, with all varieties closing higher. The capital market remained tight, with DR001 around 1.53%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan [1] 3.2. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that AI's productivity improvement might lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven". The Fed governor Waller, a potential candidate for the Fed chair, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to weaken with a large adjustment amplitude today, but the bond market benefited little. Affected by the tax period, the capital market remained tight. With a lack of clear signals from monetary policy and light news, the market still lacks a strong driving force [3] 3.4. Trading Data - Contract Prices and Changes: TS2512 closed at 102.49, up 0.012 from the previous day; TF2512 at 105.91, up 0.02; T2512 at 108.495, up 0.03; TL2512 at 116.57, up 0.11 [6] - Contract Positions and Changes: TS contract positions increased by 925 to 83,687 hands; TF contract positions decreased by 1,178 to 158,973 hands; T contract positions decreased by 164 to 285,339 hands; TL contract positions increased by 563 to 185,923 hands [6] - Contract Transactions and Changes: TS main contract transactions increased by 2,388 to 34,723 hands; TF main contract transactions increased by 3,133 to 51,916 hands; T main contract transactions increased by 1,244 to 63,673 hands; TL main contract transactions increased by 1,158 to 89,428 hands [6] - Basis and Changes: TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0276 to - 0.0256; TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0266 to - 0.014; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0317 to 0.081; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0414 to 0.0942 [6]