下游仍具韧性，等待宏观回暖，关注反套机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically complete, with the daily inspection volume increasing to around 100,000 tons, leading to a significant rise in domestic cotton inventory and increasing short - term supply pressure. The downstream demand is somewhat resilient but currently shows general performance. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and investors should wait for macro - economic recovery and focus on reverse - spread opportunities [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 13,300 - 13,800, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0401 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0064 [2] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent losses from inventory and price drops, the company can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,700 - 13,800, and sell call options (CF601C13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 250 - 300 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price [2] - For procurement management with low inventory, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, the company can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,300 - 13,400, and sell put options (CF601P13400) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is almost finished, daily inspection volume has increased, and domestic cotton inventory has risen. The downstream gauze factory load is stable, but the restocking intensity is weak. The domestic demand has some resilience, and there is still a rigid restocking demand for raw materials [3] - The current supply pressure is increasing, there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and the demand is average, so the upward momentum of cotton price is lacking [3] 3.3利多Interpretation - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. The yarn mills' raw material inventory is low, and there is a rigid restocking demand for cotton [4] - In October 2025, China's cotton imports were 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports in the 25/26 season were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [4] - Sino - US negotiations have improved market expectations for future trade, and the overall sentiment has warmed up [4] 3.4利空Interpretation - The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, there is significant hedging pressure above the cotton price, and the domestic cotton inventory has rebounded rapidly. As of the end of October, the domestic industrial and commercial cotton inventory was 3.8188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons and an increase of 338,500 tons compared to the five - year average [5] - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [5] 3.5 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices and Spreads - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, down 25 (- 0.18%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,495, down 30 (- 0.22%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,670, down 35 (- 0.26%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,790, unchanged (0%); Cotton yarn 05 and 09 were both 0, down 100% [6] - The cotton basis was 1,329, down 7; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 5, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 175, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 180, down 10; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,290, up 10; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,957, up 64; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 520, unchanged [6] 3.6 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,789, down 12 (- 0.08%); CCI 2227B was 12,964, down 5 (- 0.04%); CCI 2129B was 15,048, down 12 (- 0.08%); FCI Index S was 13,004, down 18 (- 0.14%); FCI Index M was 12,827, down 17 (- 0.13%); FCI Index L was 12,517, down 17 (- 0.14%) [7]