玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The structural contradiction in the glass industry still exists. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. - There is no unexpected excessive production reduction on the supply side. The upper and middle - stream inventories of glass and soda ash are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. As the off - season approaches, the spot pressure continues to increase [4][7]. - Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery. The glass 01 contract is expected to decline in the end, but the decline may occur near the delivery. Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost expectation is solid, without production reduction, its valuation has no upward elasticity. The high overall inventory in the upper and middle - stream restricts the price of soda ash, which is expected to be weak in oscillation [7]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.36% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.3%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1100 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.89% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.0% [1]. 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high glass product inventory worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250. They can also sell call options (FG601C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low glass procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 900 - 950. They can also sell put options (FG601P900) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. Soda Ash - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high soda ash product inventory worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250 - 1300. They can also sell call options (SA601C1300) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low soda ash procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150. They can also sell put options (SA601P1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Glass - Futures Price: On November 18, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1151 (down 14 or 1.2% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1232 (down 10 or 0.81%), and the 01 contract was 1017 (down 12 or 1.17%) [8]. - Futures Spread: The 5 - 9 spread was - 81 (down 4), the 9 - 1 spread was 215 (up 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 134 (up 2) [8]. - Spot Price: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 18, 2025, was 1073 (down 12 from the previous day). The prices in different regions also showed some declines [9]. Soda Ash - Futures Price: On November 18, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1287 (down 17 or 1.3% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1352 (down 22 or 1.6%), and the 01 contract was 1214 (down 17 or 1.38%) [10]. - Futures Spread: The 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 5 or - 7.14%), the 9 - 1 spread was 138 (down 5 or - 3.5%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 (unchanged) [10]. - Spot Price: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable on November 18, 2025, except for a 22 - yuan decline in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [11].