有色持续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper continued to decline with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 86,000 yuan mark, indicating strong willingness among long - position holders to liquidate. Influenced by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the market sentiment weakened, leading to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the beginning - of - the - month low [7]. - Aluminum: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 21,500 yuan mark. Affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the market sentiment weakened, causing a general decline in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the spot discount has continued to weaken since last week as the aluminum price rose. This week, even though the aluminum price has fallen from its high, the discount has not improved, suggesting weak industrial support. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Nickel: Since last night, Shanghai nickel has seen a significant decline with an increase in positions. Today, the main contract price of nickel broke below the 115,000 yuan mark, hitting a new low this year. Recently, as the non - ferrous metal sector has corrected, the nickel price shows a downward trend with a significant increase in positions. As the nickel price falls, the spot premium gradually strengthens, reflecting stronger support at the spot end, but the market has weak expectations for the long - term. In the short term, the nickel price has increased positions and declined, breaking below the April low, indicating strong downward momentum [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On November 18, high copper prices have led to a substitution effect in the brass rod downstream. Some customers have switched to more cost - effective materials such as stainless steel and plastic, resulting in weak order recovery for brass rod enterprises and overall weak trading. On November 17, a bridge at a copper mine in the southeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed, causing 49 deaths and 20 serious injuries [11]. - Aluminum: In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous month but a 12.5% increase year - on - year. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 171 million tons, a 30.10% increase year - on - year. On November 17, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 637,000 tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the 13th and 210,000 tons from the 10th [12]. - Nickel: On November 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,800 - 119,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,900 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was 100 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper canceled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [25][27][29]. - Nickel: Charts involve nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].