螺纹热卷日报-20251118

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3200 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3210 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The black metal sector showed divergence today, with coal and coke dropping significantly, iron ore continuing to rise, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. Steel spot trading volume was generally weak, significantly weaker than yesterday [5] - Last week's data showed a slight resumption of blast furnace production, but the overall output of the five major steel products still declined, with rebar production cut more than plate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, but hot-rolled coils saw a slight increase in inventory. Except for cold-rolled steel, the apparent demand for each steel product declined, suppressing steel price performance [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, still exerting pressure on the upside. However, recent steel production cuts and plate inventory reduction have alleviated some pressure, with the main fluctuations coming from raw materials. Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the situation requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils are still performing better than rebar overall, and it is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will still be in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; the cumulative production from January to October was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. In October, China's medium and heavy wide strip steel production was 18.145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; the cumulative production from January to October was 187.496 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In October, China's wire rod (coil) production was 10.861 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the cumulative production from January to October was 113.005 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [9] - In October 2025, China's air conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; the cumulative production from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. In October, the national refrigerator production was 8.788 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, the national washing machine production was 11.035 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In October, the national color TV production was 18.04 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the cumulative production from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]