银河期货花生日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the price of common peanuts has declined while the price of imported peanuts has remained stable. With an increase in supply and weak downstream demand, peanut prices will be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are currently stable, and oil mills have good theoretical profit margins. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is expected that the new - season peanut production will be higher than last year, with lower planting costs. When the new - season peanuts are on the market in large quantities, the Peanut 01 contract will also fluctuate at the bottom [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7890, down 70 (-0.89%); PK510 closed at 8168, down 18 (-0.22%); PK601 closed at 7914, down 44 (-0.56%). The trading volume of PK604 increased by 151.14%, while that of PK601 decreased by 8.40%. The open interest of PK604 decreased by 1.16%, and that of PK601 decreased by 0.51% [2]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7600, and 7600 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao soybean meal increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton. The price of peanut oil was stable at 14550 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The import prices of Sudanese and Senegalese peanuts remained unchanged at 8600 yuan/ton and 7600 yuan/ton respectively [2][6]. - Regional Spot Prices: In the Northeast, prices were stable, with 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin at 4.45 yuan/jin and 4.5 yuan/jin in Changtu, Liaoning. In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts dropped by 0.05 yuan/jin to 3.6 - 3.85 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Junan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan/jin to 3.5 yuan/jin [4]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Peanut Prices: The price of common peanuts in Henan has declined, while in the Northeast it is relatively strong. Imported peanut prices are stable. It is expected that peanut spot prices will be relatively stable in the short term. Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price between 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7910 yuan/ton [4]. - Product Prices: The prices of peanut oil and soybean oil are stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is quoted at 14500 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is quoted at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal has increased, and the unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, so peanut meal is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 are fluctuating at low levels. One can try to go long on the 05 peanut contract at a price below 7900 [9]. - Spread Trading: Consider a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread, and industrial players can try a positive spread for the 12 - 1 spread [10]. - Options Trading: Hold the short position of the pk601 - P - 7600 option [11]. Part 4: Related Charts The report provides six charts, including those showing the prices of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil, and the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, as well as the price spreads between different peanut contracts [15][19][22].