Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is influenced by long - term bullish beliefs and short - term consumption concerns, with prices oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [1]. - The aluminum and alumina market shows short - term lack of industrial highlights, but the medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken [2]. - The zinc market is supported by exports and costs, with prices consolidating at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - The lead market faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support levels at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. - The nickel and stainless steel market is in a downward channel, with nickel prices showing a weak trend [5]. - The tin market needs to focus on domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend in futures prices, with prices expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. - The polysilicon market is also expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Sentiment: The market has a "strong belief" in long - term copper price increases, but end - of - year consumption strength is a concern [1]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: It continues the situation of "weak supply and demand", and the industry is concerned about the processing fee negotiation at the Shanghai Copper Annual Meeting. The traditional demand sectors have lower operating rates than last year, and the SMM inventory has decreased [1]. - Overseas: A landslide accident occurred in a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa), and the province has suspended all artisanal mining activities [1]. - Trend: The copper price oscillates between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. Short positions at last week's high can be held around 88,000 yuan, and put options with an exercise price of 84,000 yuan can be considered [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The domestic operating capacity is 95.8 million tons, and the price is in a downward trend. The industry inventory is increasing, and it is expected to be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [2]. - Supply: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, and a new 240,000 - ton capacity project of Tianshan Aluminum is progressing steadily [2]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased slightly [2]. - Inventory and Policy: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the spot premium and discount have shown small - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - Trend: The medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken, but short - term attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. Zinc - Market: The LME zinc has risen by 1.7%, and the Shanghai zinc main contract has risen by 1.3% [3]. - Spot and Supply: The export window for zinc is open, the LME inventory has increased, and the import zinc concentrate TC has declined. Domestic zinc smelters' profits are under pressure, and there are cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Consumption: The consumption is affected by environmental protection and high prices, and the domestic consumption expectation is average [3]. - Trend: The zinc price is expected to consolidate at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. Lead - Market: The LME lead inventory has increased sharply, and the price has risen and then fallen. The Shanghai lead has a weak fundamental turn - weak expectation [4]. - Spot and Supply: The overseas lead concentrate is being consumed, and the domestic lead concentrate supply is tight. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - Consumption: The consumption is expected to weaken, and the short - term correction pressure is increasing [4]. - Trend: The Shanghai lead faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices have declined, and the market trading is weak [5]. - Macro and Demand: The inclusion of stainless steel in the list by the UK Department of Commerce has suppressed the demand expectation, and the market remains weak [5]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products vary, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have increased [5]. - Trend: The nickel price is in a weak trend, with the center of gravity shifting downward [5]. Tin - Market: The Shanghai tin has increased significantly, and the multi - empty game is intense due to uncertain supply in the short and long terms [6]. - Supply: The tin exports from Indonesia have decreased in October, and the African concentrate exports may be affected by the rainy season. The market is uncertain about the long - term supply [6]. - Consumption: The demand in traditional and photovoltaic fields at the end of the year is average, and the inventory has increased [6]. - Trend: Attention should be paid to domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The price has risen again, and the trading is active [7]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [7]. - Demand: The production of downstream material plants is active, and the order demand is strong [7]. - Supply: The total market inventory has decreased, with different trends in smelter, downstream, and trading inventories [7]. - Trend: The futures price is strengthening, and the price range is expected to be 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The price has declined, and the market trading is average [8]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is constrained by the dry season in the southwest, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is expected to decline. The possibility of production cuts by monomer plants is uncertain [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased [8]. - Trend: It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. Polysilicon - Futures: The price has rebounded after reaching a high, and the market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [9]. - Spot: The spot price has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [9]. - Demand: The demand has declined, and the price has been under pressure. The subsequent price increase by silicon wafer enterprises is expected [9]. - Inventory: The factory inventory has increased [9]. - Trend: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9].
有色金属周度观点-20251118
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-18 11:59