Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-18 11:59Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index continued to adjust today, with relatively large declines in small and medium - cap stock indices. The market is currently dominated by the game between policy - driven positive expectations and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits. In the short - term, the news is relatively flat, and the signal of favorable policies is weakening, increasing the pressure for index correction. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market today has further increased the downward pressure on A - shares. The previously strong chemical and battery sectors have corrected, while the AI sector has strengthened, showing a high - to - low rotation. The basis of stock index futures shows differentiation. For IF, except for the next - quarter contract whose basis declined, the basis of other contracts converged. The basis of IH contracts declined, while the basis of IC and IM contracts rebounded significantly, breaking away from the historical percentile below 10%. The basis of stock index futures of stock indices with large declines for two consecutive days has strengthened significantly. Coupled with the slight rebound of the index in the late trading today, it indicates that there is support below, and the market sentiment is not completely pessimistic. In general, it is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term, but the expectation of favorable policies provides support at the bottom, and the downward space of the stock index is limited [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed down collectively today, with the large - cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.65%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.5277 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3]. Important Information - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, reaching a number of achievements and consensuses, ending the trade tension. The favorite candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [4]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.85 | -0.69 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1863 | 5.4759 | 13.444 | 21.7767 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.7571 | -0.2437 | 1.7523 | 2.044 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8688 | 9.7691 | 25.4019 | 36.202 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.5967 | -0.3423 | 0.8185 | 0.6867 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.81 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.92 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.31 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 1926.068 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1.5277 | [7]