10月财政数据点评：收入暂无虞，支出将加速

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, the broad fiscal revenue declined slightly, and the broad fiscal expenditure decreased significantly. To meet the budget targets at the beginning of the year, the revenue side has little difficulty, while the expenditure may accelerate significantly at the end of the year [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Revenue Side - General Fiscal Revenue: In October, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, compared with 3.2% in the previous period. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.2% in October (previous value: 2.6%), tax revenue at 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), and non - tax revenue at - 33% (previous value: - 11.4%) [1][11]. - Tax Revenue: In October, the four major taxes performed well, especially personal income tax. The growth rate of securities trading stamp duty declined due to the base effect. The year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax was 7.3% (previous value: 19.59%), personal income tax was 27.3% (previous value: 16.68%), domestic VAT was 7.2% (previous value: 7.60%), and domestic consumption tax was 4.4% (previous value: 3.83%). Real - estate - related taxes were - 1.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.4%), and vehicle purchase tax was - 16.8% (previous value: - 3.7%). Stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty were 9.4% and 17.5% year - on - year respectively, but declined month - on - month [2][11]. - Government Fund Revenue: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 18.4%, compared with 5.6% in the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 2.8% (previous value: - 0.5%). There was no significant impulse phenomenon. The annual budget target for government fund revenue in 2025 is a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the current gap is not large [1][15]. Expenditure Side - General Public Budget Expenditure: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was - 9.78%, compared with 3.08% in the previous period, the lowest growth rate of the year. All expenditure items decreased year - on - year, with infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure declining most significantly, at - 25.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.2%). Energy conservation and environmental protection was - 11.8%, urban and rural communities was - 24.0%, agriculture, forestry and water was - 32.8%, and transportation was - 14.8% [3][17]. - Government Fund Expenditure: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund expenditure was - 38.2%, compared with 0.4% in the previous period, also the lowest growth rate of the year [3][17]. - Broad Fiscal Deficit: From January to October, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 8.58 trillion yuan, down from 8.84 trillion yuan from January to September, indicating that the broad fiscal revenue exceeded expenditure in October. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the cumulative broad deficit rate in October was 6.1%, still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years [3][21]. Budget Completion - Revenue Side: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.8%, exceeding the budget growth rate at the beginning of the year by 0.1%. From November to December, only a year - on - year decline of 3.7% is needed to meet the annual target. Government fund revenue needs to achieve a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% from November to December, and land transfer revenue may increase at the end of the year [4][24]. - Expenditure Side: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 2.0%, while the annual budget growth rate was 4.4%. From November to December, the year - on - year growth rate needs to reach 12.9%, and the government fund expenditure needs to reach 40.3%. The expenditure growth rate may accelerate significantly in the next two months, and there may even be a rush of expenditure at the end of the year [4][24].