海外宏观周报：美国政府恢复运转，市场再平衡-20251118

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, with a temporary funding bill passed to provide funding until January 30, 2026[2] - Key macroeconomic data releases are anticipated, including the revised Q3 GDP on November 26 and the September non-farm payroll report on November 20[3] - The unemployment rate data for October may be permanently missing due to the government shutdown, but private sector unemployment claims indicate a weakening labor market[3] Group 2: Market Performance - Significant structural rotation was observed in the U.S. stock market, with technology stocks experiencing a short-term pullback while utility, industrial, and consumer staples sectors outperformed[3] - The market rotation has reduced concentration, suggesting that the current adjustment is a healthy correction[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November is reported at 25.0, exceeding market expectations of 23.5 and the previous month's 22.7, indicating optimism for the next six months[10] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index recorded 98.2 in October, slightly down by 0.6 from the previous month but still above the 52-year average of 98[10] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials suggest that the end of the government shutdown has limited impact on monetary policy, with core PCE inflation trending towards the 2% target[15] - The market is pricing in a delay for the next interest rate cut to January 2026, with three cuts expected throughout the year[19]