碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core driver of lithium carbonate lies in the demand expectation, with strong demand in power batteries and energy storage batteries. The market is in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the demand performance in the off - season next year and the resumption rhythm of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine [1]. - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is likely to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream "anti - involution" and winter disturbance factors [8]. - The polysilicon market has weak supply and demand and lacks driving forces. The main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements from polysilicon enterprises. The market is in a wide - range volatile pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.76% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 93,520 yuan/ton. The opening continued the previous day's rise, but then the high - rising sentiment declined, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the long - position funds left the market [1]. - Demand Analysis: In the power battery sector, due to the phase - out of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026, there is a rush to install power cells at the end of this year. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase to about 60% in November - December. In the energy storage battery sector, the market generally expects the installed capacity growth rate to exceed 40% in 2026 [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased significantly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is still relatively strong. The long - short dividing water level is 86,220 yuan/ton [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.10% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,980 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The supply output decreased slightly, with continuous production cuts in the southwest region and mixed changes in the northwest region. The demand may further weaken, and the industry inventory is relatively high, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with increased positions in the morning and then rebounded with reduced positions, indicating short - position control. The 5 - minute cycle is in a volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is relatively weak. The long - short dividing water level is 9,225 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures continued the volatile trend. The main 2601 contract decreased by 0.85% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 52,210 yuan/ton [10]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In November, the production schedule of polysilicon decreased significantly, with an expected output of 116,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.36%. As of November 14, the factory inventory was 265,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,900 tons, and the supply pressure still exists [10][13]. - Technical Analysis: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is in a weak operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is approaching the red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 51,865 yuan/ton. The large - cycle shows a wide - range volatile pattern [13].