白糖大跌、生猪破位下行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the agricultural by - products and soft commodities in the agricultural products sector showed a weak trend. Sugar prices dropped significantly due to increased imports and the start of the new sugarcane pressing season, and the downward trend is expected to continue. The hog futures price also broke through the support level, with supply exceeding demand. Other products such as soybean meal, eggs, and cotton are also under pressure, while apples maintain an upward trend, and palm oil fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 continued to decline sharply after breaking through the support level. High sugar imports (750,000 tons in October, a 39% year - on - year increase; 3.9 million tons from January to October, a 14% year - on - year increase) and the start of the sugarcane pressing season in Guangxi increased supply pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [2]. (2) Hog - The main hog contract 2601 broke through the support level, with high supply (high inventory of breeding sows, high planned slaughter in November, and the release pressure of second - fattening) and weak demand (delayed curing consumption due to warm winter). The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2601 rose first and then fell. Sufficient imports of soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills (66% this week), high inventory of soybean meal, and weak downstream demand led to price pressure. The strategy is to try shorting with a light position [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2601 continued to fluctuate within a range. Malaysian exports decreased in the first half of November (down 10% - 15.5% month - on - month), while production increased (up 4.3% month - on - month), but the B50 plan in Indonesia and the approaching production reduction season provided support. The strategy is to wait for the price to break through the range or conduct short - term trading within the range (support at 8600, resistance at 8774) [8]. (5) Apple - The main apple contract 2601 fluctuated at a high level. High - quality apples in the western region and strong demand for small apples in Shandong, along with旺盛 export demand, supported the price. The overall inventory is at a low level (7.6424 million tons as of November 12, a 10.59% year - on - year decrease). The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips (support at 9323, resistance at 9500) [9][11]. (6) Egg - The main egg contract 2601 continued to decline. High egg - laying hen inventory, weak demand after Double 11, slow capacity reduction, and increased inventory led to price pressure. The strategy is to continue to short with a light position [12]. (7) Peanut - The main peanut contract 2601 rose first and then fell, with a volatile market. Loosened price - holding psychology of traders, slow supply progress in Henan, and weak demand from oil mills. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading (support at 7900, resistance at 8000) [17]. (8) Red Date - The main red date contract 2601 rebounded at a low level. High inventory of old dates and new date listing increased supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to the resistance at the 10 - day moving average (support at 9185, resistance at 9445) [19]. (9) Cotton - The main cotton contract 2601 continued to decline. Increased commercial inventory (up 15.26% month - on - month to 3.2824 million tons as of November 14), rising port inventory, and weak demand in the textile industry led to price pressure. The strategy is to short with a light position (support at 13300, resistance at 13460) [20].